Department of Economics and Banking
Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://dspace.iiuc.ac.bd/handle/88203/241
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Item Investigating Okun‟S Law In SAARC Countries: An Ardl Approach(EUL Journal of Social Sciences, 2021-06) Hanif, Abu; Ahmed, Zobayer; Çevag, SavaĢThe aim of this paper is to test the applicability of Okun‟s law in SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) countries. It also intends to find the long-run association between unemployment rate and growth rate and investigate the impact of growth rate on unemployment in the South Asian Region. The study uses annual time series data for eight SAARC countries, from 1991 to 2017. To meet the objectives of the research, the graphical illustration of trend with descriptive statistics are followed by econometric analysis. Based on the stationarity of the variables, an autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model has been estimated to test the long- run relationship between unemployment and growth. The results indicate that per capita GDP negatively influences the unemployment rate in the long run only in three member countries of SAARC, namely- Afghanistan, India and Sri Lanka and in the South Asian Region in aggregate. This paper also finds a negative relationship between the growth rate and unemployment rate in Bangladesh, but this association is not statistically significant. The study doesn‟t find any negative relationship between the two variables in Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal and Pakistan. The study discovers the validity of Okun‟s law, but the attained Okun coefficient is less than that of the actual Okun coefficient, documented by Arthur Okun. Another substantial evidence is that the significance of the connection between the growth rate and unemployment rate varies among the SAARC countries. The main limitation of this paper is the unavailability of data for Afghanistan compared to other SAARC countries. This paper is unique as it tests the validity of Okun‟s law in every member country of SAARC and as a region of South Asia. To date, no such study like this has been found in the body of literature which finds long-run relationship in all SAARC countriesItem Revisiting inflation and growth nexus in Bangladesh: an asymmetric cointegration based on non-linear ARDL approach(Revista Finanzasy Politíca Económica, 2021-07-31) Acet, Hakan; Ahmed, Zobayer; Majumder, Alauddin; Hossain, Mohammed AkterSustainable high economic growth is the major objective of a country. In contrast, inflation is a critical issue that alters economic development. For this, the growth-inflation nexus is one of the most controversial topics in this present world. This study re-investigates the link between inflation and the economic development of Bangladesh by applying a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lagged (NARDL) method. We utilize yearly time series data set on the growth rate of per capita GDP and the inflation rate for the time range from 1986 to 2017. Based on the NARDL approach, the asymmetric cointegration result confirms, between the GDP growth and inflation rates (CPI), a long-run integration exists. Between growth rate and inflation rate, the study finds a positive and robust nexus both in the long-run and in the short-run with statistically significant results. This study further explores an asymmetric relationship between the rate of inflation and the rate of economic growth. The nonlinear ARDL approach shows that the GDP growth rate responds more with an upward change in inflation than a downward change. Furthermore, the positive change in inflations has a significant and positive influence on the growth rate in the short run. Still, the effect of an adverse change in inflations has statistically insignificant. Both the policymakers of Bangladesh (Bangladesh Bank) and development partners working in the country can be benefited from these results in the context of policy implementation. To boost the economic growth in the context of Bangladesh, this study recommends that a moderate inflation rate can be treated as a significant determination.